Risk Philosophy

We treat risk not as a probability to be optimised, but as a structural property of strategic decisions. Most material risks emerge not from forecast error, but from irreversibility, capital rigidity, and misaligned incentives.

Our work prioritises downside protection, survivability, and decision optionality. When risk cannot be eliminated, it must be consciously owned, bounded, and positioned within a broader strategic architecture.

We distinguish between acceptable volatility and existential risk. The former can often be priced; the latter must be designed around. This distinction informs capital allocation, timing decisions, and strategic commitments.

Strategy without an explicit risk philosophy tends to optimise for local outcomes while accumulating hidden fragility. Our approach seeks to surface and address that fragility before it becomes irreversible.